📊 Dane County Market at a Glance — September 2025

YTD through Sept 1: Median price ~$450,000 (+1.1% YoY), average sale ~$521,452 (+4.9% YoY), ~4,368 sales (near flat YoY).

📈 What the Numbers Mean Right Now

Sales volume is softer, but pricing power hasn’t evaporated because supply is still lean. The mid-price brackets ($300K–$600K) absorb quickly; upper tiers ($700K+ and $1M+) carry more breathing room and negotiation space.

🧭 Smart-Mover Playbook: Buy Now vs. Wait

If you buy now (during the “cooling” window):

• Better odds of winning with contingencies (inspection, appraisal) and seller concessions.
• Less competition than peak months; more time to evaluate vs. rush.
• Lock price before any demand surge.

If you wait for a possible ~25 bps Fed cut:

• Potentially lower monthly payment if rates improve.
• But likely more buyers return, especially in tight segments—fewer concessions, faster timelines, higher prices.
• Mid-price homes could see renewed bidding pressure.

Bottom line: If a quarter-point cut materializes, expect competition to heat up—concessions shrink and prices can firm further. If cuts don’t arrive (or are smaller), today’s window for terms and credits lingers a bit longer.

🎯 Strategy by Price Band

💡 Advice for Sellers

• Week-one is everything: price to the market, not the wish list; maximize presentation and launch quality.
• Use pre-inspection + light prep to widen buyer pool and protect your timeline.
• If rates drop later, buyer counts may jump—but you’ll also compete with more new listings. Timing + prep = leverage.

🏦 Macro Watch: The Fed Wildcard

Market chatter favors a potential ~25 basis-point (0.25%) reduction in borrowing costs. If that happens, expect droves of buyers to re-engage—especially in mid-price bands—raising competition and reducing the availability of concessions. If cuts stall, current negotiating advantages likely persist a bit longer.

🧩 Final Take

Sales down. Prices steady. Inventory scarce. In this environment, the smart move is a strategic one. Either act now to secure terms and concessions—or prepare a fast, clean offer for a post-cut crowd. We’ll help you run the numbers both ways so you can move with confidence.